Prophets Of Rage Release New Single, “Living On The 110”

first_imgJust over a year ago, Prophets of Rage–a politically-charged supergroup comprised of Tom Morello, Tim Commerford, and Brad Wilk of Rage Against The Machine, Chuck D and DJ Lord of Public Enemy, and B-Real of Cypress Hill–burst into existence with an angry bang. The outfit, described by Morello in 2016 as “an elite task force of revolutionary musicians determined to confront this mountain of election year bullshit,” came together for a string of summer amphitheater shows following their widely buzzed-about maiden shows in LA and Brooklyn featuring a mix of material by RATM, Pubblic Enemy, and Cypress Hill. The band also promised that they would be recording original music.The promise was fulfilled last month with the Michael Moore-directed “Unfuck the World,” the first single from the upcoming self-titled debut LP Prophets of Rage–due out September 15. Today, the super group releases the second single, “Living on the 110.”About the song, Morello said in a statement,”‘Living on the 110’ is a song that speaks to the issue of homelessness,” according to Rolling Stone. “The 110 is a freeway in Los Angeles and living beneath it are thousands of homeless people. Bentleys and Rolls Royces roaring by are literally driving on top of the poor and their makeshift homes, a picture perfect analogy for the grotesque economic inequality that plagues our times.”Prophets Of Rage TracklistRadical EyesUnfuck The WorldLegalize MeLiving On The 110The CounteroffensiveHail To The ChiefTake Me HigherStrength In NumbersFired A ShotWho Owns WhoHands UpSmashitlast_img read more

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Dick Advocaat pays tribute to old adversary Van Gaal

first_img Press Association The Sunderland head coach, who celebrated his 68th birthday on Sunday, played with 64-year-old Van Gaal at Sparta Rotterdam but has locked horns with him throughout his lengthy managerial career, and more often than not come out on the right end of the result having lost just once in 10 meetings. However, he has the utmost respect for his fellow former Holland manager as he attempts to get the better of him once again. Advocaat said: “He’s one of the best coaches in the world, no doubt about that. He has worked at the highest levels in Europe. “He is a manager who does not just look for the easy way, he is always looking for the most difficult way. If you see his prize list, it is unbelievable, so I rate him very highly.” The pair forged their relationship in the Sparta team during the early 1980s with the older man nursing Van Gaal through. Advocaat said with a smile: “He played with me at Sparta for two years. You heard what I am saying … he played with me! “He was a different player to me. I would get the ball and give it to him. He had the eyes – and so did I later – but in the beginning, I gave it to him because he was a good player. “He was not the quickest. But he is a good guy. If you know him well, he is a good guy.” Sunderland will head for Old Trafford sitting at the foot of the table and without a win in their opening six league games to meet a United side sitting in second place. Advocaat has only once before come across the Red Devils in a competitive match during his illustrious managerial career, leading Russian side Zenit St Petersburg to a 2-1 victory in the 2008 European Super Cup in Monaco, before which the former Rangers boss shared a few stories with former Rangers striker Sir Alex Ferguson. He said: “I had a great conversation before the game with Ferguson. He wasn’t laughing after the game because I beat him.” Sunderland will have central defender Younes Kaboul back from suspension, but midfielder Jack Rodwell and striker Jermain Defoe are doubts with ankle and hamstring injuries respectively. center_img Dick Advocaat will take on “one of the best coaches in the world” when he goes head-to-head with old adversary Louis van Gaal on Saturday. last_img read more

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Women’s soccer rides defense to wins

first_imgThe Women of Troy hit the road this weekend as they continue their fight for dominance in the Pac-12.Julia Erickson | Daily TrojanLock it down · Senior goalkeeper Sammy Jo Prudhomme won her fourth Pac-12 Goalkeeper of the Week award and has 10 shutouts this year.Ranked No. 2 in the conference and No. 4 in the nation, the women’s soccer team is entering a critical three-game stretch to finish out a dominant season of conference play. The team first heads to Salt Lake City on Thursday to take on Utah, then travels to Boulder for a Sunday game against Colorado.For most of this season, Utah has been a solid middle-tier team, recovering from early pre-season losses to win steadily and sit tight in the middle of the Pac-12 rankings. After tying with Cal in double overtime last week, the team has proved that it can compete with the top dogs in the conference.The Buffs, meanwhile, are ranked third in the Pac-12. After a soft start to the season, they suffered another loss to Stanford last weekend before knocking off Cal 3-2 in double overtime. The Trojans will take on Colorado after the Buffs play against UCLA, a team ranked No. 9 in the country who provides stiff competition for stealing one of the top rankings in the conference, on Thursday.The bottom line is that dominance in the Pac-12 is completely up for grabs. At the top is USC, neck-and-neck with Stanford for the No. 1 ranking in the Pac-12  as the season comes to a close. And for USC head coach Keidane McAlpine, that makes this final weekend on the road even more important.“It’s that time of year,” McAlpine said. “All the games you have to show up and you have to play. The games are important for us because we’re still trying to peak [and] reach that next level.”This weekend’s games come after two more shutouts for the Trojans against Washington and Washington State, adding up to 10 on the season for redshirt senior goalkeeper Sammy Jo Prudhomme. After notching five saves over the weekend, Prudhomme earned her second-straight Pac-12 Goalkeeper of the Week award and her fourth of the season.Prudhomme’s performance alongside senior defender Mandy Freeman has pulled together a young defensive corps, turning a backline that struggled to connect at the season’s start into one of the most dominant defenses in the country.“The competition from here on out is just gonna get better,” McAlpine said. “Every game, there’s gonna be a moment when [Prudhomme] is gonna have to make a big save on top of some of the simple saves.”After this weekend, the Trojans will return home for one last stop — a rivalry matchup against UCLA that will decide the final rankings for the Pac-12. Then, it will be go-time for McAlpine and his team as they begin their journey in the NCAA tournament.last_img read more

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Anthony Davis and LeBron James’ input ‘incredibly valuable’ in building Lakers roster, GM says

first_img“Once [Leonard’s] decision was made, we had all of our chess pieces on the board to make our moves and close. And at that point you just don’t look back,” Pelinka said Friday (via ESPN.com). “The North Star for us was just we wanted to add more shooting. We wanted to have perimeter defenders, high-IQ players, guys with high character, and then a versatile lineup.”Though James hasn’t given his scouting report of his new-look Lakers roster, Davis said during his introductory press conference that he’d “put our roster up against anybody.””It’s going to be fun,” Davis said. “I’m excited about it. I think the league has grown, I think it’s better. All the players teaming up and kind of spreading that talent throughout the league — it’s going to be a fun season. I like our roster, I like every player that we have. From one through 14, and so I’m excited about it.” Related News Avery Bradley explains decision to sign with Lakers “Anytime as a general manager when you have stars on your team, especially guys that have the basketball IQ and understanding of the game that Anthony Davis and LeBron have, of course you’re going to be tapping into them as partners,” Pelinka said on a conference call (via silverscreenandroll.com). “We view our relationships here with our star players as partnerships and I know Anthony and LeBron are excited about the 14 guys and how we’re going to come together, and their input is — both of their input, Anthony’s and LeBron’s — has been incredibly valuable to me.”Notable Lakers free agent signingsPlayerPositionContract detailsDanny GreenSG2 years, $30 millionKantavious Caldwell-PopeSG2 years, $16.6 millionAvery BradleySG2 years, $9.8 millionQuinn CookPG2 years, $6 millionRajon RondoPG2 years, $5.2 millionJaVale McGeeC2 years, $8.2 millionDeMarcus CousinsC1 year, $3.5 millionJared DudleySF1 year, $2.6 millionLos Angeles spent its open cap space quickly once it missed out on Kawhi Leonard. And while Pelinka, James and Davis certainly wanted to add a third superstar, they made sure they were ready to move on other players if free agency’s biggest domino didn’t fall in their favor. 3 takeaways from Anthony Davis’ introductory press conference with Lakers Anthony Davis to skip FIBA Basketball World Cup, still planning to play in Olympics, report says Rob Pelinka may the general manager of the Lakers, but he knows his two superstar players — Anthony Davis and LeBron James — need to be happy if he expects the franchise to return to prominence.With that in mind, Pelinka said he consulted both James and Davis when it came time to sign a bevy of free agents and fill the Lakers’ roster.last_img read more

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X&Y ANGEL -New Short Ponytail Hair Piece Extension Wavy Claw Clip In/on Hairpiece PM004, Lovely pony tsil but its not black its dark brown

first_img Posted on May 12, 2018Author Nathalie DuboisCategories HairpiecesTags X&Y ANGEL Omg i absolutely love these hair pieces i have brought 2 now. I have had so many comments on it. And the best thing about it, it really do look like you’re real hair. Really good natural looking pony tail. Once in and secure, you can play about with the hair to create a natural look that no one can see if it is your hair or not. I tie my hair into a tight pony tail,ends tucked in to hair bobble. Pull hair at back and sides till happy with look then clip hair to desired height making sure its secure and not pulling. Key specs for X&Y ANGEL -New Short Ponytail Hair Piece Extension Wavy Claw Clip In/on Hairpiece PM004 (dark brown):Condition: Brand newStyle: Curly ponytail comes in a claw clip.How to wear: Shake it and clip it on your own hair. Brush it into the style you like. No pins or tape are required.Length:about 30 cmThere are 3 colors to choose:black ,light brown .dak brownComments from buyers“Ponytail clip in, Thanks so much love this ponytail love big hair so yes its great , Omg I absolutely love these hair pieces I have brought 2 now” Brilliant and very easy to use. The product it’s beautiful looks identical with my colour hair and i use chocolate truffle. Very easy to put on and it’s not heavy at all. This is brilliant and matches my colour. Well worth the price makes you look stunning and i need height in my hair so i bought this n it makes me look stunning so thankyou. Thanks so much love this ponytail love big hair so yes its great great delivery will buy more in future. Lovely pony tsil but its not black its dark brown pity i cant wear it as i have black hair hense 3 stars. Bought for my daughters wedding and she looks lovely, easy to attach, colour was not perfect a bit light for a dark brown request, perhaps got the wrong colour. Have now ordered again in black. Does everything it says on the tin. Looks very synthetic and not matching the colour i thought it would be, as demonstrated in the pics. Brilliant hairpiece, matches my own hair perfectly. Lovely ponytail nice an thick i went for dark brown but theres a slight red tone in it if thats what your after. Fantastic, my hair looked amazing and the colour matched my dyed hair. SummaryReviewer Nathalie DuboisReview Date2018-05-12 10:03:28Reviewed Item X&Y ANGEL -New Short Ponytail Hair Piece Extension Wavy Claw Clip In/on Hairpiece PM004 (dark brown)Rating 5.0 / 5  stars, based on  37  reviewslast_img read more

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GPS fencing to be highlighted at Ohio Sheep Day

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest Farm dogs can be very important to livestock operations for the purposes of predator control, but they can also be a source of headaches and additional expense when fences fail to keep them contained.A farm dog ending up in places other than where they are needed is an all-too-familiar problem that those in the livestock industry deal with. Finding a way to keep those farm protectors inside set boundaries, like an invisible fence, is often not economically feasible when those boundaries are measured in acres.That may not be the case anymore, as now, the same technology that maps out travels plans and keeps farm equipment heading in a straight line is being used to keep a farm’s four-legged predator defense system from venturing off of the homestead.This GPS containment system is one of the ideas that will be highlighted at the 2015 Ohio Sheep Day at Jim and Denise Percival’s Schoolhouse Shropshires farm in Xenia on July 11.“Essentially, each dog that would be on the system (up to 10) would wear a GPS collar which communicates directly with GPS satellites,” said Brandon Baker, Sales Supervisor with Invisible Fence of Dayton and Columbus West. “The central base station, which is mounted to a structure on the property, increases the accuracy of the fence to three feet of the selected boundaries.”Setting up the perimeter of the GPS fencing system begins with software that utilizes Google Maps that electronically plots out points to set preferred boundaries. Those points can be changed or customized as the farm’s situation may change.When you compare the GPS option to the conventional underground wire fencing, there is a point where the newer, high-tech choice is more cost effective.“The underground wire systems typically cover areas as small as a quarter of an acre or less up to fifteen acres or so,” Baker said. “Because of the GPS system’s size requirements, we generally like to start with properties that are five acres and above and there is no upward limit as to how many acres we can cover, we could put a boundaries around the entire U.S. if we wanted to.”When a wired system is installed on 10 to 15 acres, the cost would be the equivalent of what the new GPS technology would run. The unit’s price point is around the $3,000 mark, including the equipment, installation and training.“We take the time to teach dogs that will be on the GPS system how their new collars work, how to find their boundaries using the collar and how to respond properly by stopping, turning around and backing away when they come too close to the boundaries,” Baker said.The Percival’s, who have over 40 years in the sheep industry and currently have 65 brood ewes in Greene Country, are putting this new fencing technology to use. Keeping their two Great Pyrenees dogs close by is important to their bottom-line.“Our dogs do a really good job at controlling predators in our area,” Jim Percival said. “Most recently we have found that black vultures are an issue and our Great Pyrenees are great for those as well.”Great Pyrenees, by nature, have a wide range of ground they like to protect. Sometimes for Percival, that meant his dogs were getting a bit too far away from where they were needed the most.“Since we had the new GPS containment system put in, when the dogs get within 30 feet of one of their boundaries, it stops them and turns them around,” Percival said. “Before we installed the new system, our oldest dog would not only protect our livestock, but everyone else’s within a three-mile radius. Now, he stays put and hasn’t left the farm at all.”Recently, Percival was introduced to the folks in Tennessee that developed the GPS technology and once he was sold on the idea, he called Invisible Fence to start the process.“It was very, very easy to implement,” Percival said. “They came by with their computers and pulled up the county auditor’s website, then they set up the perimeter of our farm and put in the points we wanted and drew straight lines about 30 feet off of the property line to adjust for the satellite ranges and we were all set.”As with any new technology added to an operation, the start-up cost may be the hardest bite to swallow, but Percival sees the GPS system paying for itself once he takes into account the lambs he may be saving from keeping his dogs close by.“Since we have implemented this new system, we have not lost any lambs to predators,” Percival said. “This past winter, we did have some coyotes starting to come around and our dogs and donkey chased them off before any harm was done.”In the future this technology has the potential of being used on larger animals, not only to keep them within a certain area, but to also track each individual animal to know their location at any given time.Percival is getting his farm prepped for Ohio Sheep Day and he is not only proud to host the event on his farm, but he says this is a great opportunity for his part of the state.“This is the first year that I recall the event coming to southwest Ohio,” Percival said. “There are a lot of small sheep breeders in this area and we wanted to give them the opportunity to learn about some of the new ideas that make our industry better.”The topic of predator control and management is where the new GPS technology will fit in the event’s program. The day will also include helpful tips for those just getting started in the sheep business and some discussions about manure management, which is a topic that is front and center in Ohio.Bob Hendershot will be on hand to hold a forage clinic on Percival’s alfalfa fields, and the topics of approved EQIP practices for sheep farms, basic sheep management practices, lambing barn arrangements and proper selection of sheep equipment will also be covered.Registration for the 2015 Ohio Sheep Day on July 11th is $15 for Ohio Sheep Improvement Association members and $25 for non-members and includes lunch.For additional information on the event visit OhioSheep.org.last_img read more

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Resilient Communities

first_imgAbout this seriesThroughout this resilient design series, I’m covering how our homes and communities can continue to function in the event of extended power outages, interruptions in heating fuel, or shortages of water. Resilient design is a life-safety issue that is critical for the security and wellbeing of families in a future of climate uncertainty. RELATED ARTICLES Resilient communities, in these situations, will be communities that can function without the automobile. Indeed, in certain respects, improving the resilience of our homes is the easy part — not cheap, certainly, but relatively straightforward. Making our communities more resilient is a very difficult, long-term challenge. Here are some strategies.Create pedestrian-friendly communitiesPlaces where it’s more convenient to walk around — and less convenient to drive — will inherently be less dependent on cars. Traffic calming measures that slow down vehicles and make walking safer are key. Some of these measures, such as bump-outs on traveled streets and closely spaced crosswalks, are a bane to drivers, but they make a difference in safety and walkability.Wide sidewalks are key to pedestrian access. And in cold climates, it’s important for municipalities to keep those sidewalks clear in the winter months.Provide bicycle lanes and pathwaysI spent a couple weeks in Lund, Sweden, a few years ago. I arrived in the late afternoon on a rainy December day and was astounded by the number of people getting around by bicycle. The city has an entire network of bicycle paths, divided with directional lanes. On a busy Saturday in Lund, with the streets bustling with people and commerce, the bicycle parking lots were packed, and about the only open pavement I saw in the city was a large parking lot for cars in the center of town. The few lonely Volvos and Saabs provided stark contrast to our packed parking lots here in America.Bicycling is certainly easier in relatively flat places that don’t have a lot of snow — like Lund, Sweden; Copenhagen, Denmark; and most of Holland. But significant progress is being made here at home in some surprising places. Minneapolis, for example, recently pulled ahead of Portland, Oregon as the most bicycle-friendly city in the nation, according to Bicycling magazine. Despite the cold weather, more than 120 miles of bicycle paths, indoor bicycle parking, and other features helped Minneapolis gain that recognition.Encourage mixed-use developmentStandard zoning in the U.S. separates commercial and residential development. When this zoning was created, industry was pretty dirty, noisy, and smelly, so separating uses usually made sense. But today, that same zoning often makes things worse by increasing our dependence on cars. In most recently built communities, you can’t walk to a corner café, bookstore, or food market, let alone workplaces.That can change. More progressive communities today are modifying zoning to encourage mixed-use development. The New Urbanist movement is leading that charge. The starting point in these newer, more pedestrian-friendly, mixed-use developments is often to look back at older cities like Charleston, South Carolina, and towns built up around railroad stops outside such cities as Washington, DC, Philadelphia, and Chicago.Encourage density and public transitDensity is key to creating less car-dependent communities. Without adequate density it’s very hard to make public transit work, because there isn’t a critical mass. And without effective public transit, people have to drive. This is the primary reason public transit works so much better in most of Europe than it does in the U.S. — significantly higher density in the cities and towns.One solution is to make in-town, infill development easier by providing incentives for denser development while raising hurdles for sprawling, car-dependent, “greenfield” development. Whether we push it or not, there is already a shift toward higher-density, transit-accessible development, because that’s where people want to live. Over the past ten years, even as real estate values have declined generally, they have continued increasing in places like the neighborhoods within a half-mile of Metro stops in the Washington, DC area.Support locally owned businessesResilience at the community scale is also a function of strong local economies. With locally owned businesses, more of the profits are recycled within the community and region. Those businesses are more likely to reach out during a natural disaster, helping neighbors and donating to recovery efforts than are large national companies owned by distant stockholders whose motivation is simply maximizing profits. Local businesses are also more likely to source materials locally — something I’ll address next week.Build strong communitiesWhether or not there are bike pathways or enough density to allow public transit, a high degree of resilience can be achieved in communities through community-building. Potluck suppers, local cultural events, farmers’ markets, apple pie festivals, strawberry suppers, Sunday concerts, town meetings, and community walks can all help to create communities where people get to know each other and will work together when needed. That’s the most important aspect of community resilience. Defining Habitable Temperatures Designing Homes and Communities That Can Survive a DisasterResilient Design: Passive Solar HeatResilient Design: Dramatically Better Building Envelopes Designing Houses and Communities To Be Smarter and More ResilientResilience: Designing Homes for More Intense StormsMaking the Case for Resilient DesignBuilding Resilience for a ‘Close Encounter’ with DisasterGreen Building Priority #9 – Create Resilient HousesMaking Houses Resilient to Power Outagescenter_img In this ninth installment of my ten-part series on resilient design, I’m focusing beyond individual buildings to the community scale. Following a natural disaster or other problem that results in widespread power outages or interruptions in vehicle access or fuel supplies, people need to work together. We saw that throughout Vermont with tropical storm Irene last year, when some communities were cut off for a week or more.Where there were cohesive communities in place — where people knew their neighbors and worked cooperatively on issues of common concern — dealing with the crisis was a lot easier.Community resilience also relates to how well we could get along without our cars. In some future crisis, gasoline might become unavailable for an extended period of time, or a political upheaval somewhere could result in a quadrupling of the price of gasoline, which could price it out of reach for many. Additionally, without power, gasoline pumps at service stations don’t work, so unless a service station has back-up power, its gasoline pumps won’t work. How would we function without cars? Alex is founder of BuildingGreen, Inc. and executive editor of Environmental Building News. To keep up with his latest articles and musings, you can sign up for his Twitter feed.last_img read more

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Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky, Nigel Hayes and Duje Dukan Are Hanging With Local Elementary Students Today

first_imgFrank Kaminsky on the court against Duke.INDIANAPOLIS, IN – APRIL 06: Frank Kaminsky #44 of the Wisconsin Badgers reacts after falling to the court in the first half against the Duke Blue Devils during the NCAA Men’s Final Four National Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium on April 6, 2015 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)The No. 5 Wisconsin men’s basketball team last played at Michigan on Saturday and won’t take the court again until this Saturday at Iowa. With some extra free time this week, Badger big men Frank Kaminsky, Nigel Hayes and Duje Dukan are hanging out with the students at Glacier Edge Elementary School in nearby Verona, Wis. All three players spoke with the students as part of the school’s Kindness Week activities. The All-American Kaminsky even took a selfie with some students: #BadgersGiveBack #Notor #NigelHayesA photo posted by Frank Kaminsky (@fskpart3) on Jan 28, 2015 at 9:00am PST Dukan, who is 6-foot-10, tried to blend in with the crowd but it didn’t work out too well.New game: #WheresDuje? pic.twitter.com/GOY5bm3J8V— Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) January 28, 2015 Hayes, meanwhile, may not have a future as a comedian judging off this joke, but he does know his state geography. Stand-up comedy with Nigel Hayes #BadgersGiveBackA video posted by Wisconsin Basketball (@badgermbb) on Jan 28, 2015 at 8:39am PSTOne underrated aspect of these photos and video is the impressive jersey game of some of the students at Glacier Edge. The local staples (Wisconsin and the Green Bay Packers) are of course represented, but shoutout to the kid in the sweet Dallas Mavericks throwback, and the two young men who wore the NFL jerseys of Badger alumni Russell Wilson and J.J. Watt.last_img read more

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Who Are The Favorites In The 2019 NFL Season

Kansas CityP. Mahomes+59161510.369%50%9% Chance To… Travel distance and rest matter. We used to give a blanket home-field advantage of 65 Elo points for every game that wasn’t at a neutral site. Now, we modify our home-field effect4Which is worth a flat adjustment of 55 Elo points. using the distance the visiting team needed to travel to get to the game, docking a team by 4 points of Elo for every 1,000 miles traveled.5This effect is not applied to international games, though it is used for the Super Bowl. Teams also perform better after a bye week (including teams that don’t play during the opening week of the playoffs), so we now give a bonus of 25 Elo points whenever a team is coming into a game fresh and extra-rested. The AFC South experienced a dramatic shakeup when Andrew Luck retired two weeks ago, giving the division a whole new favorite: the Texans. Now, Houston is in somewhat tenuous possession of that distinction, with No. 6-ranked QB Deshaun Watson leading the way — despite last weekend’s bombshell trade that shipped star pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney to Seattle. The Titans aren’t far behind Houston, although QB Marcus Mariota has regressed over the past few years: In Week 12 of the 2016 season, his Elo adjustment would have been 61 points higher than an average quarterback; now it’s 34 points below average. The Jaguars are right in the mix as well, thanks in part to the acquisition of former Eagles backup Nick Foles; Foles adds 14 points of Elo compared with the team’s long-term historical QB rating (i.e., Blake Bortles). Finally, the Colts went from first to last in Elo’s division prediction — literally overnight — after Luck retired. Backup Jacoby Brissett is worth about 90 fewer Elo points by himself than Luck would have been — a huge blow to Indy’s chances of making a return trip to the playoffs. Even so, this is the most uncertain division race in the league. Chance To… ClevelandB. Mayfield+915168.441252 TeamStarting QBvs. avgElo RatingProj. WinsMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Super Bowl New EnglandT. Brady+52164011.180%69%14% Chance To… N.Y. JetsS. Darnold-4814527.124111 L.A. RamsJ. Goff-915889.660%46%7% How we’re predicting the AFC North race OaklandD. Carr-2614135.8125<1 L.A. ChargersP. Rivers+415809.659366 Quarterback ratings are relative to the average NFL team’s long-term rolling QB performance and are included in the listed Elo ratings. Simulations are updated as of Sept. 3, 2019.Source: ESPN PittsburghB. Roethlisberger+8715699.558%41%5% MiamiR. Fitzpatrick-213895.5104<1 MinnesotaK. Cousins+1215408.543273 Quarterback ratings are relative to the average NFL team’s long-term rolling QB performance and are included in the listed Elo ratings. Simulations are updated as of Sept. 3, 2019.Source: ESPN CincinnatiA. Dalton-4014146.2158<1 TeamStarting QBvs. avgElo RatingProj. WinsMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Super Bowl Quarterback ratings are relative to the average NFL team’s long-term rolling QB performance and are included in the listed Elo ratings. Simulations are updated as of Sept. 29, 2019.Source: ESPN This is the tightest division race in the NFC. The Bears are favored to win again, though Mitchell Trubisky is Elo’s second-lowest rated QB in the North. (He’s 13th overall, so it mainly speaks to the quality of passers in this division.) On the other side of the ball, the amount of talent on Chicago’s defense is impressive, a necessary component as the Bears are hoping to repeat as last year’s stingiest defense in terms of points allowed. The Vikings come in slightly lower but are still 13th overall by the Elo rankings. So should we blame QB Kirk Cousins for Minnesota’s disappointing 2018 season? Probably not. Although his Elo rating wasn’t as high as during his 2016 or 2017 campaigns, Cousins was good for most of last year, and he enters 2019 as our 12th-ranked quarterback. But the best QB Elo in the division belongs to Aaron Rodgers of the Packers. Even if former coach Mike McCarthy didn’t always put him in the best position to succeed, Rodgers still had solid numbers last season and is currently ranked seventh in QB Elo. (It’s the rest of the roster that’s holding Green Bay back from a division probability better than that 24 percent.) Last, we have the Lions. They project to finish fourth, with QB Matthew Stafford coming off his worst season in years and a second-year coach already on the hot seat. But we do call for Detroit to return to its rightful place in the NFL standings, with roughly a 7-9 record, after last season’s 6-10 hiatus. The Chiefs are the second-most-likely team to win the Super Bowl, trailing only the Patriots. One of the biggest reasons: Elo ranks Patrick Mahomes as the fourth-most-valuable QB in the league behind Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. Although K.C. will probably regress some after last year’s breakout (we think the Chiefs’ point differential will fall from +144 to +79), and the defense is no better than average (it ranks 16th in ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index), we think this is the team most likely to dethrone New England. The Chargers aren’t running very far behind, either, ranking sixth in overall Elo. L.A. didn’t do much over the offseason — and its trademark injury problems are already cropping up — but this remains one of the most talented rosters in the game. The gap between this division’s top two and bottom two is vast. The Broncos upgraded under center with former Ravens QB Joe Flacco, but he’s still mediocre at best. Late summer for the Raiders has been a circus even by the standards of a “Hard Knocks” team; maybe Brown will improve QB Derek Carr’s numbers, but the team has plenty of other question marks. Oakland and Denver won’t be helped by playing the two toughest schedules in the league, either. Chance To… WashingtonC. Keenum-2414276.31691 Quarterback ratings are relative to the average NFL team’s long-term rolling QB performance and are included in the listed Elo ratings. Simulations are updated as of Sept. 3, 2019.Source: ESPN Quarterback ratings are relative to the average NFL team’s long-term rolling QB performance and are included in the listed Elo ratings. Simulations are updated as of Sept. 3, 2019.Source: ESPN Chance To… TeamStarting QBvs. avgElo RatingProj. WinsMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Super Bowl How we’re predicting the NFC South race How we’re predicting the NFC North race DenverJ. Flacco-1614626.82091 TeamStarting QBvs. avgElo RatingProj. WinsMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Super Bowl How we’re predicting the AFC East race San FranciscoJ. Garoppolo-2114807.428171 HoustonD. Watson+2915338.443%32%3% As we said above, the Patriots are not only the division favorites (for what feels like the millionth consecutive season) but are also the model’s top Super Bowl pick. Their fate is tied to Tom Brady continuing to play well at an age when basically no other QB has done that, of course, and he’ll have to do it without favorite security blanket Rob Gronkowski, who retired in March. But Brady hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down yet, and he’ll get to face the NFL’s easiest schedule7According to the average Elo ratings of New England’s regular-season opponents, adjusted for expected starting QBs and home-field advantage. in 2019. Perhaps surprisingly, Elo gives the Bills a slight edge over the Jets for second place in the East. Both teams’ sophomore QBs (Josh Allen and Sam Darnold) played well down the stretch last season, though our model likes Allen a bit more. New York had the more eventful offseason, signing Le’Veon Bell and abruptly firing GM Mike Maccagnan, but the Bills might have made steadier progress. And the Dolphins bring up the rear, though they have the division’s second-highest rated Elo QB in newcomer Ryan Fitzpatrick. (Amid questions of Miami tanking, Vegas gives the Phins 500-to-1 Super Bowl odds, the worst in football.) IndianapolisJ. Brissett-5514797.328191 Chance To… How we’re predicting the NFC East race AtlantaM. Ryan+6715338.339233 TeamStarting QBvs. avgElo RatingProj. WinsMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Super Bowl N.Y. GiantsE. Manning-2714246.4179<1 DallasD. Prescott+1815478.949334 TeamStarting QBvs. avgElo RatingProj. WinsMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Super Bowl New OrleansD. Brees+61160410.063%46%8% ArizonaK. Murray-5013895.5106<1 Tampa BayJ. Winston+714466.61791 Quarterback ratings are relative to the average NFL team’s long-term rolling QB performance and are included in the listed Elo ratings. Simulations are updated as of Sept. 3, 2019.Source: ESPN The more things change in the NFL, the more they stay the same. Fresh off of their sixth Super Bowl win with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at the helm, the defending champion New England Patriots open the 2019 season as our favorite to win again. The rest of the top contenders are similar to last season’s as well: the Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles round out the top five in Super Bowl odds, according to our predictions.But our NFL Elo model has changed in a somewhat significant way. You can read more about how it all works here, but in a nutshell, we have added a number of wrinkles to make our football picks more accurate:Quarterback adjustments. We hinted at this over the summer, but we now track rolling performance ratings1Based on a regression between Total QBR yards above replacement and basic box score numbers (including rushing stats) from a given game, adjusted for the quality of opposing defenses. for each QB in the league, which can then be compared with a team’s own rolling QB rating to adjust its Elo in games with a different quarterback starting.2This is very similar to the way we handle starting-pitcher adjustments in our MLB Elo model. (Related to this, we have a new interactive page that shows the relative quality of every quarterback in the league.)3Initial ratings for rookies are based on draft position, ranging from a 0 for an undrafted free agent to a +113 for a No. 1 overall pick like Arizona’s Kyler Murray. TeamStarting QBvs. avgElo RatingProj. WinsMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Super Bowl JacksonvilleN. Foles+914987.835242 TennesseeM. Mariota-3415027.836252 Quarterback ratings are relative to the average NFL team’s long-term rolling QB performance and are included in the listed Elo ratings. Simulations are updated as of Sept. 3, 2019.Source: ESPN CarolinaC. Newton+1415158.338223 BuffaloJ. Allen-1214757.630151 SeattleR. Wilson+1415458.746314 Green BayA. Rodgers+2815228.238243 Rumors of the Steelers’ demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated. Despite a tumultuous offseason that involved officially losing Bell8The running back sat out all of last season as part of a contractual dispute. and also shipping receiver Antonio Brown to the Raiders, Pittsburgh remains the top-ranked team in the North. Part of that is thanks to Ben Roethlisberger, who checks in as Elo’s No. 1 overall QB, and part of it is because the Steelers have one of the league’s easiest schedules. The Ravens and Browns are neck-and-neck behind them; Elo is skeptical about Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson after he posted not-so-great numbers as a rookie, but it thinks his supporting cast is superior to Baker Mayfield’s in Cleveland — despite the Browns’ big offseason (hi, Odell) and general hype level heading into 2019. Meanwhile, the Bengals are a distant No. 4, as QB Andy Dalton has seen better days, and the team is breaking in a first-time head coach (Zac Taylor). TeamStarting QBvs. avgElo RatingProj. WinsMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Super Bowl BaltimoreL. Jackson-4015278.441263 DetroitM. Stafford-2214586.922121 Chance To… PhiladelphiaC. Wentz+2015869.863%49%7% Last year, the defending champion Eagles suffered a historic hangover to start their 2018 season, but eventually righted the ship to make the playoffs and even win a first-round game. Armed with Elo’s eighth-ranked QB (Carson Wentz), a talented supporting cast and one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, our model thinks Philadelphia should be division favorites in 2019 — particularly if the Eagles have better injury luck. The defending East champ Cowboys might have something to say about the Eagles being favorites, however, regardless of the holdout of RB Ezekiel Elliott. We rank QB Dak Prescott ninth in Elo, right behind Wentz. Once again trailing in the division are the Giants and Redskins; Washington has the better Elo rating but is slightly less likely to make the playoffs because of a tougher schedule than that of New York. Fittingly, both teams have mediocre veteran QBs (Eli Manning and Case Keenum) trying to fend off highly drafted rookies (Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins). At the top of the NFC South, we have Drew Brees and the Saints coming in as favorites to win the division for a third straight year. Elo rates Brees as the league’s third-best QB, even though he sputtered down the stretch of last season and will turn 41 in January. Fortunately for New Orleans, its supporting cast appears to be good enough to help ease Brees into old age, ranking eighth in QB-independent Elo.9I.e., the team’s adjusted Elo rating if Brees were to be replaced with an average starter at quarterback. As for the Falcons, Matt Ryan is No. 2 in our QB rankings, but the rest of the team ranks 25th in QB-independent Elo. That’s more an indictment of a defense that ranks 23rd in preseason projected FPI than an offense that still includes hyper-productive WR Julio Jones, but Atlanta is hoping that a coaching staff of all new coordinators can help Ryan. The Panthers are still only three seasons removed from a Super Bowl appearance, but they’ve gone exactly 24-24 since then. Elo calls for more of the same this season, with an 8-8 projected record, although Carolina does have the No. 10 QB in our rankings (Cam Newton) and a respectable 38 percent chance of getting back to the playoffs. Finally, the Buccaneers are hoping to end the franchise’s postseason drought at 11 seasons — but they need to improve on last year’s horrid defensive performance and get more consistency from both Jameis Winston and a passing attack that had the third-highest game-to-game QB Elo variance10Trailing only the Rams and the Nathan Peterman-led Bills. of any team in 2018. How we’re predicting the AFC South race ChicagoM. Trubisky+1215669.152%37%5% How we’re predicting the AFC West race The playoffs are different. We found that differences in talent between opposing teams tend to be amplified in the NFL postseason, so now Elo differentials are multiplied by 1.2 before computing the expected win probabilities and point spreads for playoff games.Altogether, these changes improved our historical predictions by quite a bit in backtesting, so we’re feeling confident that our 2019 picks will be better than ever before.6You might notice that we don’t have a dedicated factor for defense included in the model. For one thing, defense would implicitly be part of a team’s non-quarterback Elo rating; for another thing, it was difficult to find specific defensive variables (such as coordinators) which improved predictive accuracy — perhaps because defense is notoriously difficult to predict between seasons. For cases below where we do need to refer to a team’s projected defensive quality, we used ESPN’s Football Power Index projections for the upcoming season.And what are those picks, exactly? Let’s run down what our Elo model thinks of each division in the NFL, starting with… Quarterback ratings are relative to the average NFL team’s long-term rolling QB performance and are included in the listed Elo ratings. Simulations are updated as of Sept. 3, 2019.Source: ESPN How we’re predicting the NFC West race What would Vegas do? In the past, our preseason ratings would simply be each team’s final rating from the previous season, reverted to the league’s average Elo rating by one-third. But our new system also incorporates ratings derived from a team’s over/under win total according to the Las Vegas sportsbooks, giving those twice the weight of mean-reverted Elo when setting a team’s preseason rating. Chance To… The Rams are coming off a Super Bowl run, and there were times last season when they looked unbeatable, not least because of a GOAT-level performance by defensive lineman Aaron Donald. But with questions remaining about QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley — to say that neither were major factors in the playoffs would be an understatement — L.A. might be due for a regression, even if Elo does still consider the Rams division favorites. A number of signs point to a decline, from L.A.’s 6-1 record in close games last year and favorable bounces in recovering fumbles, to a more difficult schedule and even the possibility of adverse effects due to more injuries. Elo thinks the Rams’ point differential will drop from +143 to +58 this season. Behind them, the Seahawks have the division’s best (slash only above-average) Elo QB in Russell Wilson, and they did some offseason shuffling — Clowney and Ziggy Ansah will replace Frank Clark on the pass rush, for example. But Seattle mostly looks like the same good-but-not-great team it was last season. The 49ers will get a do-over with Jimmy Garoppolo after the QB was injured three games into the 2018 season. But is Jimmy G. any good? Elo’s still not sure. It ranks Garoppolo 22nd among starters heading into 2019, despite his hefty price tag. All three of those teams could potentially contend for the division, though. For the Cardinals, that looks like a long shot at best with the tandem of rookie QB Kyler Murray and first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Elo gives Arizona the worst rating and tied for the lowest playoff odds of any team in the NFL this season. read more

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Saturdays loss affects pride more than championship chances

The Badgers took down the top-ranked, undefeated Buckeyes in Madison, Wis. It’s happened twice since October in two sports. But let’s move on. Let’s move on from Badger fans allegedly spitting on Ohio State players, chanting homophobic slurs with Buckeyes on the free-throw line and screaming, “F— Ohio!” before the opening tip. The land’s best fans are above that. Let’s move on from the notion that somehow there’s a connection between Saturday’s loss and the Oct. 16 football game. Let’s move on because, unlike that football game, this team’s chances at a National Championship are the same now as they were on Friday. A loss in February does not break what could be a dream season in college basketball. Coach Thad Matta has continually emphasized that this team’s goal was never to go undefeated — it was to win the Big Ten Championship. The team had already moved on from an undefeated season before taking its first loss. Even with the defeat, OSU leads the conference by two games with six contests left. Four of those are at home, including the regular-season finale, a rematch against Wisconsin on March 6 in Columbus. At this point, it would take more than one loss to cost this team a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But while Saturday’s defeat is relatively inconsequential in the big picture, it sure doesn’t feel that way, does it? Until the Buckeyes beat the Badgers, there are things that happened in the loss to Wisconsin that we can’t move on from. We can’t move on from watching a 15-point lead dissolve almost instantaneously, after a barrage of threes jet-fueled the bedlam at the Kohl Center.    We can’t move on from that unutterable feeling that churned the pits of our stomachs when we watched a guy named Mike Bruesewitz hit a game-deciding shot, when Wisconsin’s student body rushed the floor or when we couldn’t turn on the TV without seeing Jordan Taylor’s stat line that included 5-for-8 on 3-point shooting. We can’t move on from the fact that Wisconsin fans have started labeling the Badgers “Buckeye Killers.” The rate of winning that OSU has achieved in football and basketball makes losing to the same school over and over again that much worse. We wouldn’t be the fan base we are if these things didn’t bother us. It’s part of a good fan’s DNA to squirm when falling to a rival, regardless of whether the loss means anything. But the beautiful thing about sports is there’s always another opportunity. And the impact of Saturday’s result would shrink if the Buckeyes hammered the Badgers March 6 at home, like they should. “To be spit on is just nasty,” freshman forward Jared Sullinger tweeted following the game. “On top of that in my Face. Before and after the game. Smh. I just kept walking. More fuel to the fire.” Although it was tough, Sullinger did the right thing. Wisconsin will get what’s coming. Until then, let’s move on. read more

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